We start 2009 with a question, is it truly a Happy New Year or is it just a continuation of the disaster that was 2008? Another way of saying this is Where are we going in 2009? Will things continue to get worse?
Several things have caused us to frame this first post of the New Year this way.
1). The Business Press and Business itself has been relentlessly optimistic in the past. This is especially true of entrepreneurial supporting magazines such as Entrepreneur and Inc. The daily news does not always enter into these magazine's topics. That is no longer true. Both these magazines have bleak prognoses for 2009. Along with the rest of the Business Press, 2009 is to be the "year of recovery". The situation has gotten so bleak, that Mark Hendricks wrote an editorial for Entrepreneur's January 2009 issue calling it "Crappy New Year", and there was no "tongue in cheek". Hendrick's focuses on the credit crisis, its impact on small and large business enterprise. He cites the the July 2008 Senior Loan Office Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices. Their report noted "65% of senior bank loan officers reported that they recently tightened standards for small business seeking loans during the second quarter of 2008. That's an all time high since record keeping began in1990." (You can read the entire editorial by clicking on the highlighted "crappy new year" above or at the Berkshire Athenaeum, where we have many subscriptions to Business magazines or online at entrepreneur.com.) Hendricks also emphasizes that 69% of small business have cut back on operating and capital expenses. This is true also for States where the economic crisis has caused continuing severe economic cutbacks. In President-Elect Obamas infrastructure plan may end replacing money's States have lost in cutting back their budgets. Locally, the town of Pittsfield has experienced cutbacks and job freeze, KB Toys declared bankruptcy December 10, Linens and Things closed and Berkshire Bank applied for and received $40 million from the national bank bailout fund.
2) Speaking of President-Elect Obama, he has been saying with great frequency to anyone who will listen that things are going to get worse before they get better. Whatever National Recovery plan engendered by the new Obama administration may be operating on very fragile ground. The events of 2007 and 2008 will not be ended by chronological end of year 2008. They will remain in the foreground and impact any Obama plan.
3) This gets us to our third point. We all want a return to an optimistic future and will be impatient to see change, real change, one that benefits all, not just a few. So far there has been no plan, no central organizing vision that unites business, labor, the overall public. A plan and vision are a necessary part of National Recovery. The current situation has been non reflective crisis management, trying to "put a finger in the dike" when there are only flood conditions. A national commission, like the commission of civil disorders constituted during the 1960s by President Johnson. That commisslion examined the very soul of America and was controversial. A new rexamination is needed. This is not just credit fallout, housing crisis, or bank and automotive crisis. This is a system breakdown and crisis of historic proportions. Our very daily assumptions about the role of the economy, government, priivate and public sphere need to reexamined. Who are we as a people? What happened and how was it allowed to happen? A critical eye should look under every stone? What is government to be in the 21st century? How are sectors to be united in a comprehensive and comprehensible fashion? What ideas, if any, need to be discarded? What new ideas will be brought forward to determine the road ahead? Inevitably, we are talking about the remaking and reordering of our society and who will benefit. Have laws been broken? If so what redress will be needed. This national commission should be independent and of the highest integrity. It should generate new ideas and a no holds barred critical analysis of what has gone wrong and why and provide the foundation for future directions. Whether a commission of some other form, a comprehensive national plan requiring sacrifice and commitment from all is necessary. It is these kinds of plans in the past that restored hope international, whether it was the New Deal, the Marshal Plan or the New Frontier or the Great Society. It is vestiges from these plans that have kept the United States from total collapse, agencies such as the FDIC, Social Security, and Unemployment are still critical ideas that originated during the Great Depression. The Works Progress Administration may be the model for Obama's infrastructure plan but so too was Eisenhower's National Highway Transportation plan, which created the Interstate Highway system and led to unparalleled economic and social development of the United States during the post World War II and Korean War. There is pullback now from that development.
What will the National Recovery be? Will it be genuine promise or more of the same. And what role for small and large business, labor and government. At the very least, we are living in interesting times. The central issue: What outcome is expected and will we survive?!! What are the basic needs of society and how should they be met? If basic needs cannot be met, how will we survive as a people. The sign in the road ahead suggests "New Directions Needed". As in the end of a year, it will be out with old ideas and institutions that no longer work and in with the new which will bring forward old institutions and ideas that do work along with genuine new ideas and vision that provides the basis for building a new "society" that all can buy into.
Happy New Year!!
Several things have caused us to frame this first post of the New Year this way.
1). The Business Press and Business itself has been relentlessly optimistic in the past. This is especially true of entrepreneurial supporting magazines such as Entrepreneur and Inc. The daily news does not always enter into these magazine's topics. That is no longer true. Both these magazines have bleak prognoses for 2009. Along with the rest of the Business Press, 2009 is to be the "year of recovery". The situation has gotten so bleak, that Mark Hendricks wrote an editorial for Entrepreneur's January 2009 issue calling it "Crappy New Year", and there was no "tongue in cheek". Hendrick's focuses on the credit crisis, its impact on small and large business enterprise. He cites the the July 2008 Senior Loan Office Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices. Their report noted "65% of senior bank loan officers reported that they recently tightened standards for small business seeking loans during the second quarter of 2008. That's an all time high since record keeping began in1990." (You can read the entire editorial by clicking on the highlighted "crappy new year" above or at the Berkshire Athenaeum, where we have many subscriptions to Business magazines or online at entrepreneur.com.) Hendricks also emphasizes that 69% of small business have cut back on operating and capital expenses. This is true also for States where the economic crisis has caused continuing severe economic cutbacks. In President-Elect Obamas infrastructure plan may end replacing money's States have lost in cutting back their budgets. Locally, the town of Pittsfield has experienced cutbacks and job freeze, KB Toys declared bankruptcy December 10, Linens and Things closed and Berkshire Bank applied for and received $40 million from the national bank bailout fund.
2) Speaking of President-Elect Obama, he has been saying with great frequency to anyone who will listen that things are going to get worse before they get better. Whatever National Recovery plan engendered by the new Obama administration may be operating on very fragile ground. The events of 2007 and 2008 will not be ended by chronological end of year 2008. They will remain in the foreground and impact any Obama plan.
3) This gets us to our third point. We all want a return to an optimistic future and will be impatient to see change, real change, one that benefits all, not just a few. So far there has been no plan, no central organizing vision that unites business, labor, the overall public. A plan and vision are a necessary part of National Recovery. The current situation has been non reflective crisis management, trying to "put a finger in the dike" when there are only flood conditions. A national commission, like the commission of civil disorders constituted during the 1960s by President Johnson. That commisslion examined the very soul of America and was controversial. A new rexamination is needed. This is not just credit fallout, housing crisis, or bank and automotive crisis. This is a system breakdown and crisis of historic proportions. Our very daily assumptions about the role of the economy, government, priivate and public sphere need to reexamined. Who are we as a people? What happened and how was it allowed to happen? A critical eye should look under every stone? What is government to be in the 21st century? How are sectors to be united in a comprehensive and comprehensible fashion? What ideas, if any, need to be discarded? What new ideas will be brought forward to determine the road ahead? Inevitably, we are talking about the remaking and reordering of our society and who will benefit. Have laws been broken? If so what redress will be needed. This national commission should be independent and of the highest integrity. It should generate new ideas and a no holds barred critical analysis of what has gone wrong and why and provide the foundation for future directions. Whether a commission of some other form, a comprehensive national plan requiring sacrifice and commitment from all is necessary. It is these kinds of plans in the past that restored hope international, whether it was the New Deal, the Marshal Plan or the New Frontier or the Great Society. It is vestiges from these plans that have kept the United States from total collapse, agencies such as the FDIC, Social Security, and Unemployment are still critical ideas that originated during the Great Depression. The Works Progress Administration may be the model for Obama's infrastructure plan but so too was Eisenhower's National Highway Transportation plan, which created the Interstate Highway system and led to unparalleled economic and social development of the United States during the post World War II and Korean War. There is pullback now from that development.
What will the National Recovery be? Will it be genuine promise or more of the same. And what role for small and large business, labor and government. At the very least, we are living in interesting times. The central issue: What outcome is expected and will we survive?!! What are the basic needs of society and how should they be met? If basic needs cannot be met, how will we survive as a people. The sign in the road ahead suggests "New Directions Needed". As in the end of a year, it will be out with old ideas and institutions that no longer work and in with the new which will bring forward old institutions and ideas that do work along with genuine new ideas and vision that provides the basis for building a new "society" that all can buy into.
Happy New Year!!
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