2009 Year In Review -- What Recession? or What A Recession!!!

Been thinking about 2009 and what happened and what it means for 2010 now that we're in 2010.

Remember the Greatest Recession since the Great Depression comments? Remember the $700 Billion Dollar T.A.R.P bailout for companies and banks "too big to fail". TARP incidentallly means Troubled Asset Relief Program, begun by former Treasury Chair Henry Paulsen ( also former CEO of Goldman Sachs, a chief beneficiary of TARP ) during the waning months of President Bush's administration and supported by President-Elect Barack Obama. By Dec 31 2008 247 billion dollars had been sent to relieve failing Investment Banks and AIG. And at the very least Goldman Sachs was saved and is prospering quite well. It has even returned the $40 Billion dollar outlay. Quite a turnaround! So for Goldman and many other large banks, the Recession appears over. They're back to investing but not necessarily issuing credit.

On the smaller bank front for 2009 140 banks went into Bankruptcy and were saved by the FDIC -- Federal Deposit Insurance Corporations, whose own funds are nearly bankrupt. In 2010 bank failures have continued a pace -- 9 have failed since the beginning of 2010, taken over by FDIC. In 2009 over 1 million foreclosures occured jeopardizing individual families needs for shelter. Furthermore the national unemployment rate reached and has maintained the 10 % level, roughly 16 million individuals and their families. For those families the term Recession if not Depression is very real. Even Wal-Mart is closing many Sam's Club stores and laying off 11,000 workers. Jobs held by Wal-Mart former employees will be outsourced.

On the Investment and Finance front, the Dow has risen from a low of 7100 a year ago to over 10,000 on a continual basis (10,196 today) though there are still daily ups and downs but no dramatic downward shifts. Institutional investors are back playing the Market, confident that the US government and the Federal Reserve will prevent any dramatic decay. So the Investing community is moving forward even though wary of Financial Reform legislation. But there has been no real Financial Reform legislation no new FDIC or regulatory reform. Perhaps that is due to the hands off approach of former deregulators Larry Summers, Tim Geitner and Robert Rubin. Only recently has 82 year old former Treasury head Paul Volker been heard from in marked contrast to the hands off the "too big to fail" proponents.

Financial Reform like HealthCare Reform are both up in the air. Whereas TARP was okayed for 700 billion for 1 year HealthCare was for that same abount over 10 years and is stalled. Small Business have vested interests in seeing Health Care Reform though since it 's a large share of their own budgets, which operate on very small profit margins, unlike the "too big to fail" companies. The Outlook for any major Financial or HealthCare Reform in 2010 is very clouded, if not dim.

And remember that other indicator of onset of Recession that caught economists by surprise. Here I'm talking about Oil and Gas Prices. It was just July of 2008 when gas prices were a steady $4.11, a price that was a shock to individuals then and now. By the end of 2008 gas prices were back down to $1.87 nationally. By that time the US automotive market fell apart. General Motors and Chrysler filed for Bankruptcy protection, Fiat took over Chrysler and US taxpayers put a major financial stake in General Motors; Barack Obama initiated the Cash for Clunkers program to get Americans back into dealer showrooms. The automotive industry is still floundering. Only Ford did not take advantage of TARP. However, when banks do not issue credit, buyers don't buy; so government money went into GM's major financial lender, GMAC.

Now if you have been following gas prices over the last year, they have been inching back up, from aforementioned $1.86 to national prices this week of $2.78 up from $2.60 during the Christmas holiday season. In Pittsfield in December is was $2.63; a year ago it was $1.80. Economists were not even including gas prices in cost of living indexes so they missed the Depressive effects of these high gas prices. Wages simply do not go up to cover these changes. Nor do State budgets have the flexibility to meet these changes. With employment down, investment down, tax collections were down as well and States have initiated 3 to 4 rounds of dollar cutbacks, that in turn has affected municipalities, such as Pittsfield. For libraries, the entire Regional Library System is being cut in favor of one centralized system. Libraries are losing expected levels of state funding and local governments are unable to support library costs. This has resulted in cutbacks in service,days open and in some cases closing of libraries. In western Massachusetts there is no longer Bookmobile service to dozens of rural communities.

So here we are in 2010. Has anything changed? Or does the Recession continue full force. There has been no financial reform and no healthcare reform, no relief for small businesses or workers. There have been none of the great reforms that occurred during the Great Depression other than the hope given by those Great Depression agencies the FDIC and for the banks, the Federal Reserve.

So the question remains What Recession? and the answer remains What A Recession flowing full force to every sector and unit of United States citizenry with the possible exception of big banks and the wary Investment community!!

Best Business Books of 2009

2009 has been a year of extreme turbulence in business and the world at large! How have authors addressed this turbulence and its effects on business, individuals and families? In this post I have selected 3 books that might be worthy of your attention, 2 that are making many "best" lists and a surprise selection on maintaining sanity in the workaday world.

The Financial Times and Goldman Sachs (yes, of the bailed out Investment banks) every year make an award for Best Business Book. They announced their 2009 award of 30,000 pound sterling ($48,000 U.S) to Liaquat Ahamed for his Lords of Finance -- The Bankers Who Broke The World. Included here is a video from the Finacial Times of the award to Ahamed.




The New York Times, Time Magazine have acknowledged Lords of Finance as one of the Year's best. Ahamed's book represents an indepth look at the forces behind the Great Depression that swept the world in the 1930s and bankers and others responsible for market collapse. He looks at the role of central bankers, the Federal Reserve, and speculators in gold, the gold standard, the role of bankers in United Kingdom, Germany, France, and the United States, from bubble boom to economic and social collapse. Ahamed's is one view of the Great Depression 70 years after the fact. John Galbraith's The Great Crash, 1929 is closer in time and Galbraith became a significant actor in United States economics in the aftermath of the Great Depression. Ahamed and Galbraith's book are worth a look.

Barry Ritholtz' Bailout Nation -- How Greed and Easy Money Corrupted Wall Street and Shook the World Economy, names names, shows suitable outrage over outrageous extremes, and writes a well researched up-to-the minute book. He puts the current situation into an historical context giving a prior history of bailouts, the founding of the Federal Reserve, and generally makes a case for the emptiness of free markets ideology, noting that large corporate structures are not permitted to fail when perhaps they should fail. This has enboldened unhealthly risk taking and the "too big to fail" syndrome. Ritholz' provides a lively, intelligent account in his book where many books are deadly dull and unresponsive to diverse ideas outside scope of their thesis. Ritholtz gives you the information, lets you know what he thinks, but you can beg to differ. He is responsible for providing a real perspective on the guts of the economic crisis. You know where he stands. Rithotz also writes a very successful daily blog, The Big Picture, where follows up on themes in the book and his current thoughts on economic trends.

Both Ritholtz and Ahamed are finance professionals. Ahamed is a consultant to hedge funds, amongt other things and a former investment manager. Ritholtz heads his own firm as CEO and Director of Equity Research at Fusion IQ. Each of their books will provide "food for thought" and will do so 10 years from now. Interviews with Ahamed and Ritholtz may be found on YouTube.

The 3rd book I have selected might well be called Surviving the ongoing economic decline. And it is that, but what it's really about is presenting a clear eyed view of getting and maintaining a job and weathering all kinds of offenses along the way. It's a refreshing account about getting along in the working world. Title of the book is The Amazing Adventures of Working Girl -- Real Life Career Advice You Can Actually Use. It's by Karen Burns, who by her count had 59 jobs over 40 years in 22 cities and 4 countries. Only problem with the book is its title, The Amazing Adventures of Working Girl, which is a euphemism for a prostitute. That's not Burns' intent here though she is aware of the implications of the term. Burns has learned from her experiences and wants to share what she has found out. Turn to any page and you will find revelation, revealed in concise often funny descriptions. And she hits the mark every time in every chapter. Burns claims she was only fired once of all the 59 jobs. Today she has a very active blog, and has career counseling columns at US News & World Report. She even has her gift shop and tips on marketing yourself. Burns also has an active Twitter account and a presence of Facebook.

While Karen Burns' book is The Amazing Adventures of Working Girl, any gender will benefit from it. She covers the territory, job search, interview, pay checks that bounce, what to wear, developing confidence, negotiating for raises, job changing to job hopping. There are hundreds of jobs books published every year, giving the same advice over and over. They are replaceable parts. Burns book is a keeper and so too is her blog. Check it out.

In fact you can check all these books out at the Berkshire Athenaeum or at your library.

Webopedia -- Guide to Social Media, the Internet and All About Computers

You've heard about Wikipedia, the Online Free Encyclopedia and Investopedia, the Online Dictionary of Business and Financial terms. Today I want to introduce you to Webopedia, the Online Guide to Social Media, All Things Internet, and Dictionary and Encyclopedia of All Things About Computers and Computing Technology.

Here's how Webopedia defines itself: "Webopedia is a free online dictionary for words, phrases and abbreviations that are related to computer and Internet technology. Webopedia provides easy-to-understand definitions in plain language, avoiding the use of heavy jargon when possible so that the site is accessible to users with a wide range of computer knowledge."

Webopedia was founded April 4, 1998. Its parent company is WebMediaBrandsInc with offices in Darien, Connecticut and New York city. WebMediaBrands describes itself as "The leading global provider of events, education, jobs, and content for business, media, and creative professionals." It is a publicly traded company on NASDAQ ( WEBM ). Besides Webopedia, WebMedia provides the news service internet.com, an extensive guide to ECommerce and Small Business Computing.

When you go to the Webopedia, you can search any computer term. For example, what is phishing? (click on term for definition). Or What is an "operating system? URL or "social networking"? Webopedia gives you a basic definition and then provides more detail and related links. This allows the opportunity to get as much information as you want on a topic, to become conversant. It cuts through the jargon, abbreviations, to clearly represent the term and its significance.

Besides term definitions Webopedia provides a Quick Reference area where you may explore a Twitter Dictionary, Instant and Text Messenging and Chat abbreviations, acronyms; social networking tools, search engines and directories, google search tips, step-by-step methods to set up your own Personal or Business Facebook account, How EMail works, Selling on EBay, Small Business Computing essentials, even How to Clean Your Computer. There is a great deal of depth and knowledge, clearly presented on a wide variety of topics in the Quick Reference area. There is even a History of Blogging!

This useful site also includes an extensive "Did You Know...?" area. There you can learn how Affiliate Marketing works, how to protect against Identity Theft, Twitter tools, Windows 7, Firefox, Google Chrome, How to Format a Hard Drive, the difference between a virus, trojan horse and worm, all about Software, Open Source, Setting up a Facebook page for your business, VOIP and the Small Business, Internet Telephony, Internet Grammar, All about Cookies, Are deleted files really deleted?, Static Electricity and Computers, and Tech terms that are strange but true. Like any dictionary you may find the answer to your query but also to others you wondered about.

There is much practical, useful information to be found in Webopedia and there are hundreds of links to more information and detail. For quick reference and gratification Webopedia is hard to beat. It is up-to-date with current trends and news. It is a one stop shop for understanding internet, social networking, technical terminology. It's free and there are many tips for marketing your business, setting up links, creating blogs, and optimizing your business sense with the all the possibilities of the internet and web 2.0.

We have just scratched the surface of what is within Webopedia. I urge you to explore this site and to bookmark it for future uses. Your time will be well spent.

Scary Thoughts on Halloween 2009 -- Libraries Without Books

Here we are; it's already October 31! Halloween 2009! How about some scary thoughts to ponder.

In early September Cushing Academy a private preparatory school located in Ashburnham, Massachusetts distinquished itself with a controversial article which appeared in the Boston Globe. The article was not about its $43,000 per year tuition and board for students in grade 9 through 12. No the article was on Cushing's Library and headmaster, James Tracy's vision of an all Digital Library. The title of the article, "A library without books".

Tracy's view of the 21st Century Library is all digital. His library has a small collection of 20,000 books (hardbound). Those books, collected over time, representing many disciplines, have been discarded. Here's Tracy's rationale, “When I look at books, I see an outdated technology, like scrolls before books. This isn’t ‘Fahrenheit 451’ [the 1953 Ray Bradbury novel in which books are banned]. We’re not discouraging students from reading. We see this as a natural way to shape emerging trends and optimize technology.’’Instead of a library, the academy is spending nearly $500,000 to create a “learning center,’’ The Globe report continues, "In place of the stacks, they are spending $42,000 on three large flat-screen TVs that will project data from the Internet and $20,000 on special laptop-friendly study carrels. Where the reference desk was, they are building a $50,000 coffee shop that will include a $12,000 cappuccino machine. They have spent $10,000 to buy 18 electronic readers made by Amazon.com and Sony. Administrators plan to distribute the readers, which they’re stocking with digital material, to students looking to spend more time with literature. Those who don’t have access to the electronic readers will be expected to do their research and peruse many assigned texts on their computers. Tracy summarizes, “Instead of a traditional library with 20,000 books, we’re building a virtual library where students will have access to millions of books.’’

Whatever you may think, Tracy's vision represents one end of a continuum on the Future of Libraries. Tracy sees an all digital future with access to millions of books (and thoughts) in digital form. Beyond whatever reaction you may have there is the question of stability of digital formats. Will a digital format be able to be read 20 years from now; 100 years from now; 500 years from now? A book with all its flaws is archival. Something printed 500 years ago and preserved in bound paper can still be read. Digital formats decay and progress. Backward compatibility is critical.

The Internet, which is 40 years old this month has taken us on a continuing journey along the digital online, virtual path, to the extent that virtual communities such as Facebook, Twitter, Blogs, MySpace, Google, are all parts of our daily discourse. Do libraries need buildings? Can Public libraries be disconnected from their physical boundaries(and tax bases). Google wants Google Books to provide millions of books currently housed in libraries to all wherever they live. James Tracy's view may be voicing and recognizing trends and their eventual outcomes. Today one may attain degrees from Library Schools without ever setting foot in a physical classroom. Online classes are becoming available in multiple disciplines.

The dreamers of the Internet saw it as breaking boundaries and providing access to all regardless of class background. As a business model entities like EBay, Amazon, Facebook, LinkedIn are making money. Entire virtual economies are envisioned through video game simulations like SIMs virtual families and virtual cash becoming real cash in virtual existences such as "Second Life".

Utopian? Maybe, but newspapers and magazines are deep in the thrall of the digital movement and their "old" world has become topsy turvy and unpredictable. Where we are going remains to be seen. James Tracy's vision is just one of multiple visions and possible outcomes. This will inevitably influence the Future of Libraries. Every library, public and private, university and school is being influenced by the continuing technological revolution. Budgets, allocations between books and technology each competing for scarce dollars are all enjoined in this question of The Future of Libraries, with and without books.

Scary? A critical juncture? Simply a transition? Whatever it is libraries will be there to help us understand what is happening.... or will they?

Happy Halloween!

Web 2.0 Workshops Announced @ Berkshire Athenaeum

If you live in the Pittsfield, Massachusetts area, you may want to sign up for one of the Web 2.0 Workshops to be held October/November at the Berkshire Athenaeum, Pittsfield's Public Library. All workshops are 1 hour long, free, and being held at a variety of times, days, evenings and Saturdays.

There will be workshops on Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn, Blogs and Blogging (Create Your Own Blog), Google (search strategies), These will be hands-on workshops geared to getting you started on your web journey.

While each of these workshops has a business connection, Business Websites You Should Know About will provide you with strategic websites and support networks useful in starting and maintaining your business. Your marketing efforts can be enhanced by using LinkedIn (the business social networking site), development of your Blog, and by Twitter and Facebook. Social media increasingly is the means of getting the word out about your business and all these sites are Free. For nonprofit business the workshop, the Berkshire Funding Resource Center with it Foundation Center databases will be critical in finding seed money and critical contacts in Foundation networks.

Other workshops will focus on DoItYourself databases, where you can learn about all things automotive and home repair. Workshops on Microsoft applications Word 2007 and Excel will also be held. Finally, there will be an Email workshop, getting you started and answering your email questions.

As you can see October and November will be a busy time. Sign-ups for workshops have already begun, but it's not too late for you. The full schedule with dates and times can be found here. (Just click on the word here.) All workshops are hosted by the Berkshire Athenaeum Reference Department. Register for workshops NOW by calling 413-499-9480 ext. 202 or by visiting the Department.

Labor Day 2009 - Record UnLabor Day

Happy Labor Day! Or is it Happy at all?

It's time to reassess the economy. Labor Day is a special day set aside to celebrate those who do not own the means of production, namely the laboring classes or more specifically anyone who needs to work for money to meet their short and long term needs. Those who labor are not in a position to let money work for them. Those who work for money are subject directly to the upturns and downturns in the economy. Here small businesses are in a similar position simply because they do not own enough money or assets that they can be free of the great economic shifts that have been going on in the last year.

According to the United States Department of Labor in its most recent report, over 15 million people are members of the rank and file of the Unemployed or nearly 10% of the "civilian" work force of 150 million plus as of August 31, 2009. For these 15 million Labor Day is not cause for celebration but another day in an extended forced time without work, an extended forced vacation.

To put these numbers in perspective 15 million represents the number of individuals that are unemployed and seeking full time work. The US workforce is about 154 million. Subtract 15 million who are unemployed and you get the employed workforce of 139 million. Now multiply 15 million by a factor of 3 or 4(dependents, spouses, others) and you get the real effect of these numbers. Anywhere from 45 to 60 million people are directly impacted by the 15 million unemployed. 45 to 60 million people are facing real hardship, not being able to think beyond the next week having to face foreclosure, bankruptcy, unable to meet rental and mortgage payments, forced to choose between paying bills and food, delays in going to college or increasingly reliant on college loans or to put it another way the credit markets, which only recently have started to loosen up. Another part of this working for money is the enormous difficulty individuals and small businesses have in getting out of debt.

So Labor Day represents a cautionary Holiday this year. The Labor Movement in the form of Labor Unions brought us this special day, as well as the 40 hour week and the weekend, itself. Today, organized labor represents only 12.5% of the civilian workforce. Those working in the civilian workforce are 98% employed in the private economy. Only 2% of the workforce is in the public sphere - government employees, public school teachers, police and firefighters. Organized labor represents 36.5% of the public economy and only 7.8% of the private economy. The recent bankruptcies of General Motors and Chrysler led to further weakening of labor contracts for these companies and to the breaking of longstanding agreements. It also led to breaking of business agreements with creditors. To work in a trade union in these companies is to do with less and this is true of the newspaper business, too.

Above we mentioned those who are unemployed are defined as looking for full time work. A trend in the last 15 years has been toward reliance of employers on part time workers and outsourcing jobs to contractors of jobs, whereby people work for short periods of time. Long term full time employment is not readily available.

Looking for more information on the economic and social impact of these trends, see The Future of Work in Massachusetts, edited by Tom Juravich and Pulitzer Prize winning author, David Shipley's The Working Poor: Invisible in America, (not so invisible anymore) both found at the Berkshire Athenaeum and other Public Libraries in Western Massachusetts.

So Labor Day 2009 is really UnLaboring day. It is the end of Summer. It's Back to School. It's time to buckle down and get back to work!

That's true, except for the 15 million out of work and the 45 to 60 million impacted!! For them it's a time of worry and concern!

Top 20 Most Popular Websites

Alexa -- The Web Information Company tracks globally web surfer activity and comes up with daily statistics on most popular websites. As you can imagine this means dollars and cents in the global marketplace. And this puts into perspective the competition between Google, Yahoo. and Microsoft for dominance. Also it allows us to see where social media sites such as MySpace, Facebook, Craigslist are going.

Alexa is an Amazon.com owned company and, yes, it tracks companies like Amazon, Ebay and their reach across the globe. Besides what sites are being surfed, Alexa also breaks down average number minutes on each site, and who is using the site by age group, education, gender, income and location. These demographic breakdowns are essential in the competitive marketplace.

So what are the top 20 sites for United States websurfers? They are Google, followed by Yahoo, Facebook, YouTube(a Google company), MySpace, Windows Live, Wikipedia, Craigslist, Ebay, Microsoft Network, Blogger (a Google company), AOL, Amazon, Twitter, GO, Bing (Microsoft's new search engine), CNN, Flickr (a Yahoo company), WordPress (like Blogger, a free Blog service), and ESPN Sportzone. LinkedIn appears as number 24, Weather.com 25, and New York Times 28.

Google gets 34% of marketshre globally, Yahoo 26 %, Facebook 25%, and YouTube 24% and MySpace 4.5% and Twitter gets nearly 4%. Individuals spend more time on Facebook, an average of 27.5 minutes compared to Google's 7 minutes and YouTube's 22.5 minutes. Twitter users spend average of 8 minutes a day twittering. Bing, the new Microsoft search engine, is already in the top 20 at number 16 but amount of time spent is only 2.1 minutes. Nevertheless Bing can be seen as up and coming and Microsoft and Yahoo will be using Bing as their search engines, thus providing real competition for Google.

Now statistics such as these are not great for reading, but they do provide the nuts and bolts backdrop to news about Google, Yahoo and Microsoft and web trends. Notably, social media sites are heavily represented in these statistics. People are spending much of their time on these social sites, making friends, sharing photos and information, and exchanging and sharing files. News sites are not represented among the top twenty but they are represented in the top 50 and include the New York Times, Washington Post, Los Angeles Times and the Wall Street Journal. Amazon and Ebay make strong showings in the top 20 at 13 and 9 respectively. Internationally Google China is number 4 in China and Google Japan is dominant there. So these companies have taken an international position and are heavily represented there. Baidu, a Chinese search engine is number 1 there and because of this carries 6% world share of surfers.

Are these fleeting trends? Hard to believe but the World Wide Web is only 15 years old. Skeptics then said that money could not be made on the Internet. Today the World Wide Web is a vast economic engine. Amazon is turning profits. Microsoft and Yahoo and have been around for more than 10 years; Google celebrated its 10 anniversary this year. Colleges, Universities, the United States Postal Service and all government agencies are on the web. Any business will need, if it does not already have one, a presence on the web. In a short 15 years the World Wide Web has become a part of our daily discourse and activity. Today there is still skepticism about profitabilty but no question that the world wide web is here to stay. Ignoring its possibilities would be ignoring vast opportunity.

Alexa is a useful marketing and analytical tool in gauging the reach and progress of these critical websites and their positions in the global marketplace.